Joe Biden can end the election on election night. All it takes is an investment in Texas. Texas is the state where big, late money and showing up could put an end to the suspense about whether President Trump will concede defeat Nov. 3. That’s because Texas’s 38 electoral college votes are the most up for grabs of any swing state.
Yes, Texas is a swing state in this election. Biden has consistently polled better in Texas than has any recent Democratic candidate — according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Trump leads Biden in Texas by 1.6 points, a statistical tie — and polls have consistently underestimated the actual results for every recent Democratic candidate on Election Day. It’s a strategic opportunity Biden must seize because if he wins Texas, he wins the election.
Thanks to Republican efforts to suppress voter turnout, Texas did not expand vote by mail in midst of a global pandemic. As a result, we will know the winner of the Texas presidential election on election night. If Texas turns blue that night, and its 38 electoral votes go to Biden, then Trump would have no viable path to victory, and the election would be over that night, before Trump’s lawyers can get through the courtroom doors to stop the vote counts in other states. If Biden wins Texas along with the likely blue states of Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota and Virginia, he would still win the White House even if he loses all the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Arizona and Florida. Trump, on the other hand, cannot win without Texas.